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高盛表示，上海、深圳将成为中国首批触底反弹的房地产市场 2026-04-21
Shanghai and Shenzhen will be China’s first real estate markets to touch bottom this year and then start to recover, with house prices potentially rising 15 percent over the next three years, according to a prediction by US investment bank Goldman Sachs.
The two cities are the most competitive in terms of the four key factors driving the property market -- population structure, income levels, affordability, and supply -- so their recovery will happen six months to 24 months earlier than other first- and second-tier cities in China, Goldman Sachs said in a recent report.
Even though rental yields in Shanghai and Shenzhen are still lower than mortgage rates, the spread has narrowed to its tightest in the past decade, Wang Yi, a chartered financial analyst at Goldman Sachs, told Yicai. As in Hong Kong, a stock market rebound is likely to become a key force behind a pickup in real estate, Wang added.
House prices in Shanghai and Shenzhen may climb by 15 percent over the coming three years, Goldman Sachs forecast.
Recovery signs in Shanghai and Shenzhen are already visible in second-hand home transactions. Last month, 31,215 pre-owned homes were sold in Shanghai, the most since March 2021, while those in Shenzhen surged 151 percent to 7,225 from February, according to statistics from the local property institutions.
By comparison, the national market declined in the first quarter, though the pace slowed. In the three months ended March 31, new home sales plunged 16.7 percent from a year earlier, with the sales area down 10.4 percent, per data from the National Bureau of Statistics. The figures compare with declines of 20.2 percent and 13.5 percent, respectively, in the same period of last year.
Mortgage data, which is closely tied to the property market, also showed signs of recovery in the quarter. Chinese yuan-denominated loans rose by CNY8.6 trillion (USD1.3 trillion) from a year earlier, of which medium- and long-term household borrowing surged by CNY460.7 billion (USD67.6 billion), according to the People's Bank of China.
Since the beginning of March, mortgage lending growth has jumped. This should be a sign that the real estate market is stabilizing, Zhou Wanfu, vice president of Bank of Communications, said at the lender's annual earnings meet last month. If the trend holds, mortgage data could return to growth this year, he noted.
The total balance of personal housing loans at BOCOM and China's five other major state-owned banks fell by about CNY700 billion to CNY25 trillion (USD3.7 trillion) as of Dec. 31 from a year earlier based on data disclosed by the banks in their annual financial statements.
Source: Yicai Global
